POZNAN, Poland--U.S. House and Senate aides on Dec. 8 sought to hold down expectations that Barack Obama's election and Democratic gains in Congress will mean quick action on domestic climate change legislation next year or Senate ratification of a global climate deal to succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

Aides to Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), the next chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Richard Lugar (Ind.), the committee's ranking Republican, both said significant progress can be made toward reengaging the United States in climate talks toward a new global deal, expected to be finalized in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Domestic legislation to cap U.S. emissions also can be moved forward and perhaps be voted out of various House and Senate committees before the Copenhagen talks begin, they said.

Kathleen Frangione, a Kerry aide, offered perhaps the most optimistic outlook among the aides at a panel discussion held by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change as a side event to the Dec. 1-12 U.N. climate change conference in Poznan, Poland. Frangione said a comprehensive climate bill “does not need to be passed” in 2009, but that approval by several committees “will be enough to provide the contours” of what Congress might accept in any international deal negotiated by the Obama administration.

“I don't necessarily think it's a terrible thing” for domestic legislation and international negotiations to proceed on a parallel track, Frangione said. The debate within House and Senate committees as they work through the complexities of U.S. carbon emissions caps “in turn is going to inform” the Obama administration in its negotiations with other nations, Frangione said.

The Kerry aide spoke along with Mark Helmke, a senior aide to Lugar, and aides to Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.), the longtime House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman ousted last month by Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) (225 DEN A-8, 11/21/08).

Helmke offered a mixed assessment of prospects for U.S. action on the issue in 2009, saying the recent political shift in favor of comprehensive climate action “almost takes your breath away.” But he warned of hurdles to come, particularly in the Senate.

Uphill Battle for Climate Bill to Clear Senate.

With gains in the November elections, Democrats in the Senate have 58 votes, including two independents who caucus with the party, just two votes shy of the 60 they need to end debate and force a bill onto the floor for a vote, Helmke said.

Democrats could still pick up yet another Senate seat once a recount is completed in the still-disputed race in Minnesota. That would make for a total of 59, just short of the 60 needed, he said.

But that number “doesn't guarantee” the party can keep together what would essentially be a fragile coalition that would include various moderates and coal-state senators who worry about how emissions caps might impact their states, Helmke said.

Greater Hurdle for Ratification of Global Deal.

Supporters would have to overcome an even greater hurdle to ratify any global climate deal negotiated by the Obama administration, Helmke noted. Two-third of voting senators, or 67, would have to vote yes for the United States to accept formally such a deal, a requirement of the U.S. Constitution.

“It is difficult to get 60 votes” in the Senate--“but almost impossible to get 67 votes” needed for Senate ratification of such a deal, he said.

The Lugar aide noted that in 1997, the Senate essentially rejected the Kyoto Protocol before it had been submitted for ratification by the Clinton administration. The Senate voted 95-0 for a resolution (S. Res. 98) that warned the administration against submitting an agreement that did not require developing nations to take significant action on emissions, effectively scuttling U.S. approval.

Lugar, who has long called for reengagement in such international negotiations, also has expressed concern over “the fallout” of another failed agreement if the Senate were to again fail to ratify a global climate deal, Helmke said.

Failure to ratify the next climate agreement would raise doubts among other nations, who might walk away from future negotiations with the United States due to skepticism over whether the Senate would ultimately approve what a U.S. president has negotiated, he said.

By Dean Scott

Copyright 2008, The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc.